“Eid barbaad hui iss saal. Uske baad Diwali bhi barbaad nahin honi chahiye”
“Thandi Diwali lag rahi hai iss baar”
This is what several people said in the trade and exhibition sector to this writer as he enquired about Ram Setu and Thank God, the grand Diwali releases of this year. Nevertheless, the mood is also upbeat and everyone is hoping that both movies, which have lots going in their favour, will emerge as big hits. Ram Setu, starring Akshay Kumar in the lead, is an action-adventure with a dose of mythology. Thank God, on the other hand, seems like a film that’ll entertain as well as enlighten. It stars Sidharth Malhotra and Rakul Preet Singh in the lead, with Ajay Devgn in a supporting role.
Trade analyst Atul Mohan remarked, “During Diwali, the trade is usually buzzing with discussions about the films up for release and how they’ll fare at the box office. Yeh conversation thoda kam hai iss baar.”
Trade veteran Taran Adarsh also confirmed that the buzz for the films is limited. However, he added, “The silver lining is that these are known stars – Akshay Kumar, Ajay Devgn and Sidharth Malhotra. They have a fan following. So, it’s not like these are inconsequential releases or that Diwali is wasted.”
Many feel that the promotions of the film haven’t been on expected lines. Taran Adarsh said, “The promotions of both the films have been low-key. They should have aggressively promoted for 3 weeks or 4 weeks. These are big films and big money is riding on them, after all. Maybe they have kept the promotions intentionally low-key as they don’t want to hype up the expectations. We can just hope that when we go to see the film, we’ll be pleasantly surprised.”
Girish Johar, producer and film business analyst, noted, “The confidence of the filmmakers, in general, is a little on the lower side, at present since most of the Hindi films are not performing as per expectations. A similar trend was noticed for Vikram Vedha, Doctor G and the same applies to Ram Setu and Thank God. I probably feel that they are trying not to push the films too hard as the makers used to do in the pre-pandemic films on Diwali. It’s maybe because of underperformance or because they don’t want to spend obnoxiously. At the same time, they might be confident as they know it’s a bountiful weekend. I believe they are hoping that eventually, both films will do a good business.”
Raj Bansal, the owner of Entertainment Paradise in Jaipur, said, “It’s not like promotion kam hai. Promotion hua hi nahin hai! Even Doctor G was not promoted well and the same happened to Vikram Vedha. It seems like the promotions have taken a back seat.”
Ram Setu > Thank God on day 1: Trade
When asked about which film will open bigger, Taran Adarsh replied, “Ram Setu should take a bigger opening. The last minute song added by them (has caught attention). But I feel that though the advances are higher for Ram Setu, everything will depend on the spot bookings on day 1. I’d like to draw parallels with last year’s Diwali release, Sooryavanshi (2021). Since its makers had an issue with the advance booking, the ticket sales opened late at night, a day before release. The advance booking was as good as nil. Yet, it collected Rs. 26.29 crores on day 1, which is huge, despite the 50% cap.”
He continued, “So, the spot bookings make a lot of difference. It happened last year and it’ll happen this year as well. During Sooryavanshi, people were hungry for a big-screen entertainer. It was a Rohit Shetty film; the brand name is huge. And of course, it starred Akshay Kumar with Ajay Devgn and Ranveer Singh in extended cameos. In the case of Ram Setu and Thank God, there are big stars of course and there’s Indra Kumar, who delivered a solid hit 3 years ago, with Total Dhamaal (2019). We’ll have to wait and watch to see how the numbers come. Based on advance booking, you can’t say anything. Spot bookings are quite important. Moreover, these films cater to the masses. If they like it and if the content matches the stardom, there’s no stopping it”
Atul Mohan said, “Ram Setu seems to have generated more excitement. People are talking more about it. It is also religious and seems to have action. Thank God had two both trailers and both seemed similar. If there’s more promising stuff in the film, they should have shown that.”
He also believed that the promotions of the Akshay Kumar-starrer are satisfactory, “With Ram Setu, their team is doing a very good job. There is visibility. Even the song is catchy. As for Thank God, they haven’t given paper ads. Ajay Devgn is promoting Drishyam 2, which is releasing much later. He’s not seen much for the promotions of Thank God.”
Day 1 prediction
So what will be the day 1 collections of Ram Setu and Thank God? Raj Bansal answered, “Ram Setu will open at Rs. 17 crores and Thank God at Rs. 14 crores approx. I thought the advance will be neck to neck. But now it, seems that there will be a gap of 10-15% between the collections of Ram Setu and Thank God.”
Girish Johar elaborated, “The post-Diwali day is a huge holiday and it can generate business worth Rs. 50 crores at the box office. I don’t think the combined day 1 collections of Ram Setu and Thank God will be more than Rs. 28-30 crores. So we are still short of Rs. 20 crores.” He also said, “I believe that Thank God should open in the range of Rs. 14-16 crores and Ram Setu’s opening should be in the range of Rs. 16-18 crores.”
6-day weekend advantage
Ram Setu and Thank God will be rare films, which will be released on a Tuesday. While Tuesday is the post-Diwali day, Wednesday will be a holiday and a New Year in some regions while Bhaidooj falls on Thursday. Hence, it enjoys a six-day weekend of sorts, from Tuesday, October 25 to Sunday, October 30.
Taran Adarsh feels that this can prove advantageous to both films, “It’s a great time. Though Tuesday is a working day, people will be in a mood to celebrate. Till Sunday, it’s going to be huge. But again, it depends on the content. Agar content hi saath nahin dega, toh stars bhi kuch nahin kar sakte.”
Atul Mohan also believed that Ram Setu and Thank God can earn huge if word of mouth is positive. But he cautioned, “A six-day weekend is also risky,” especially if reports are outright negative.
Competition from Hollywood and regional cinema
Ram Setu and Thank God will have to share screens with three significant films – the Marathi epic period actioner, Har Har Mahadev, starring Sharad Kelkar, Gippy Grewal’s Punjabi family comedy, Honeymoon, and the Hollywood superhero flick, Black Adam.
When asked if these films can pose a challenge, Taran Adarsh stated, “In Maharashtra, Har Har Mahadev will be significant. It’s going to release in total of 5 languages but its awareness is not high as the other Pan-India films. Nevertheless, it looks interesting and I would love to watch it, as a viewer. In the home state, it has all the chances to pose a tough competition to these two films.”
Atul Mohan exulted, “The local films get an edge but Hindi films have an upper hand always”
Girish Johar said, “At the local level, depending on the content, it can dent.” He also felt that Black Adam shouldn’t have released on Thursday, October 20. He added, “Had Black Adam released on Tuesday, it might have done best numbers, or at least would have given a very good fight to both Ram Setu and Thank God. After all, Black Adam opened at Rs. 6.60 crores on a pre-Diwali, non-holiday Thursday. It could have done Rs. 12 crores approx. had it released on post-Diwali day.”
The challenge of the solar eclipse, discounted ticket rates
Raj Bansal added that the solar eclipse on Tuesday might affect collections to a small extent, “People in North believe a lot in the solar eclipse. It’ll begin at around 2:00 pm and last till sunset. This might affect collections as they who believe that they should not consume food or water, go out in the sun or watch films during the eclipse period will stay away from the cinema halls.”
He also feared that the scheme of discounts, after the super-success of National Cinema Day, can also prove detrimental, “A price war has also begun. So many offers are now being launched and tickets are sold for Rs. 100 or Rs. 150. Audiences have become so confused that they feel that ‘ticket ki koi scheme aayegi tab film dekh lenge’. This might have hampered the film’s openings in recent times. 6 months ago, audiences used to not come to cinemas thinking ‘Yeh film toh 3-4 week mein OTT pe aa jaayegi’. Now they wait for ticket prices to fall. And you even can’t blame the producers or multiplexes. The collections were getting affected and they had to find out a way to get the audiences back.”
Hope for a rocking Diwali
Despite these factors, the trade prefers to see the glass half-full. Atul Mohan remarked, “Films have usually done well on Diwali. Rs. 100 crores ka dhanda toh kiya hi hai. Housefull 4, Thugs Of Hindostan, Golmaal Again, Prem Ratan Dhan Paayo, Happy New Year, Krrish 3, Jab Tak Hai Jaan etc have all crossed the Rs. 100 crores mark. Ae Dil Hai Mushkil and Shivaay both clashed on Diwali and each film was able to collect Rs. 100 crores. It’s only recently that producers began to release their big films on Republic Day, Independence Day, Dussehra, Christmas. But Diwali has always been a big draw since ages.”
Raj Bansal agreed, “In my 50 years of experience as an exhibitor, I feel Diwali is the biggest holiday of the year.”
Satadeep Saha, CEO of SSR Cinemas Pvt Ltd, noted, “I am optimistic that both the movies will do well. Due to the festival, the collections of Ram Setu as well as Thank God will get a boost. Moreover, both movies feature heavyweight stars. Hence, we are expecting good numbers.”
Atul Mohan had the final word as he said, “I hope and pray ki sab achha ho jaaye so that even we can say that ‘Thank God for a good Diwali’!”
Also Read: Anil Thadani requests exhibitors to price Thank God 20 percent lower than Akshay Kumar’s Ram Setu
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